Many market observers and cryptocurrency fans are interested in knowing if there will be a brief drop in price before to the upcoming fourth halving event of the Bitcoin network. In the past, the value of bitcoin has increased six to seven months before reward halvings, but there has also always been a notable decline before to the gain that occurs after the halving event.
Bitcoin Halvings in the Past Have Raised Concerns for 2024
Historically, a halving event has usually occurred in the same year that bitcoin’s value has increased, with the uptick stemming from a combination of pre- and post-event moves. This matter generated a lot of conversation on the social media site Reddit, especially in the r/bitcoin thread.
It became a popular topic in January when a post about it received around 1,000 upvotes. “Historically speaking,” a user commented on Reddit. “The halving is always preceded by a dip. Are miners involved in any way in this? Simply said, it looks illogical because everyone knows that prices increase following the halving.
where the price of bitcoin is parsed from 2009 to February 16, 2024, it can be seen that there were several times where the price of bitcoin fell in the three months before each halving occurrence. For instance, on August 17, 2012, the price of Bitcoin reached its highest point at $13.50 per coin; however, in just three days, on August 20, 2012, the price had dropped to $8, a 40.74% decrease.
Nov. 28 saw the halving of the coin that year, and by the end of 2012, the price of Bitcoin was $13.45. Before plummeting 13.83% to $660 on the halving date of July 9, 2016, Bitcoin reached a high of $766 per unit on June 16. However, the price of a bitcoin had increased to $963 by December 31, 2016.
The substantial price decline that preceded the May 11, 2020, halving was also brought on by the March 11, 2020, “Black Thursday” market catastrophe. Bitcoin fell from $7,944.05 to $4,857.31, with lows of $3,800 recorded on several exchanges. Even though this 24-hour decline was significant, it was not as bad as the 38.85% drop in 2012.
Even with the 38% decline, Bitcoin ended 2020 with a 302% gain, closing at $29,228 per coin. The next halving is only two or three months away, and in that time, the value of Bitcoin has already increased by more than 21%. Although there is still a chance of a pre-halving price decline, the value can increase after the reward reduction. A lot of people on Reddit are excitedly waiting for a decline in price so they may get bitcoin for less.
One Reddit member stated, “The dip will happen, then people will think ok, the dip is done, time to load up, then a harder double dip.”
In case the price drops, some Redditors have even put money away for investments. As usual, conjecture combined with past patterns depicts subtle changes in values. Although historical trends point to a decline before to the halving and a subsequent recovery, the community’s upbeat outlook suggests a calculated response to possible market lows. This continuous cycle emphasizes how closely the market behavior of Bitcoin and the sentiment of investors as a whole are related.
What are your thoughts on the rumors that a price decline could occur prior to the 2024 halving? Please feel free to express your ideas and opinions in the space provided for comments below.